Updated: Dec 13, 2021
We own an Air-Cooled Porsche for the experience, but is money spent on an Air-Cooled Porsche comparable to an investment in the S&P500?
Thanks to Air Brigade member Jim Scott who has tracked Porsche 911 Carrera 3.2 (1984-1989) cab sales on Bring-a-Trailer (BaT), PCarMarket and Cars & Bids for the past four years we can compare the increases and declines in values of Air-Cooled Porsche Cab sales to the gains and declines achieved in the S&P 500.
Year G-Body Cab * S&P 500 Returns**
2021 21.93% 24.26%
2020 35.52% 16.26%
2019 -26.45% 28.88%
2018 45.91% -6.24%
You can see that it is not dollar for dollar an equal performance if invested in Air-Cooled Porsches versus the S&P 500, but if you believe in diversification in your investment portfolio then a dollar invested in an Air-Cooled Porsche versus a dollar invested in the market is not that far off from each other. There was an aberration in 2019 when prices of Air-Cooled G-body cabs dropped versus gains in the S&P, but this follows a drop in the S&P in the prior year of 2018.
This is not unexpected as money for collectibles is generated by gains in investments so a drop in one’s investment portfolio one year will have an impact the following year when there is not as much disposable income to spend on collectibles.
Based on that premise, then the returns on the S&P will impact the price of Air-Cooled Porsches the following year when investors are taking gains and buying collectibles; in this case Air-Cooled Porsches. Let’s look at that premise in chart form:
S&P 500 Performance Air-Cooled Porsche Price Impact
2017 = 19.42 2018 = 45.91%
2018 = -6.24% 2019 = -33.14%
2019 = 28.88% 2020 = 49.08%
2020 = 16.26% 2021 = 19.28%
2021 = 24.26% 2022 = Gains are projected
What we see is there is a correlation between the gains or drops in the S&P 500 delivering a gain or drop the following year in Air-Cooled Porsche sales. Granted this is a snapshot from one model of one body style, but Air Brigade is projecting that the market maker model, a coupe 911 will reflect the same trend.
The year isn’t over yet, but with the S&P trending in 2021 at 24.26% then we should see comparable gains in 2022 for Air-Cooled Porsche prices. Based on history, the Porsche prices should exceed the 24.26% gains of the S&P 500.
What this means is if you are thinking of buying an Air-Cooled Porsche then buy now as it looks like prices will continue to rise in 2022 unless there is a major correction in the market. That is not projected at this point.
And the good news, you now have facts to justify to your wife (partner) that an investment in an Air-Cooled Porsche is just a diversification of your investment portfolio, but a whole lot more fun than an investment in a stock or fund.
NOTE: Air Brigade is not making investment advice or counsel, just reporting on the prices achieved in the market and stating an opinion.
*Based on Jim Scott’s tracking of sales of 1984-1989 Porsche 911 Carrera 3.2 Cab sales that occurred on BaT, PCarMarket and Cars & Bids.
** Based on S&P500 historical results as reported by Macrotrends.com
Auction Results Data: Jim Scott’s detailed spreadsheet is available by contacting Air Brigade at Drive@AirBrigade.com
MacroTrends S&P 500 Data: https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns
Tags: Air-Cooled Porsche prices, Porsche as an Investment, Porsche versus S&P 500